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Donald Trump’s victory will lead to major changes in almost all policy areas in the United States (US), from tariffs and immigration to the Ukraine war. How they will be prioritised is another matter. Characteristically, Trump also appears to grapple with personal challenges, including a strong inclination to address perceived or actual slights and instances of perceived persecution. The coming Trump era could well be the most unpredictable and disruptive in our times. His appointments indicate that he intends to fulfil his election pledges, especially on immigration.
Beyond policy and personal foibles, the US elections hold immense significance. Till now, the first Trump presidency has often been viewed as an aberration and the Biden term as the norm. Now, however, it is the latter which seems to be a discontinuity. The second Trump term, which has been an all-round victory for the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) forces, will now be the norm for the US in the near future.
The coming Trump era could well be the most unpredictable and disruptive in our times.
The Trump win was not a defeat of liberalism, with its emphasis on individual rights, the rule of law, and constitutional checks on the state. It was one for neo-liberalism, which pushed globalism, abandoned the working class, and emphasised money-making over everything else. The American working class was wiped out as manufacturing relocated to Asia. Instead of their plight, neoliberal Democrats focused on narrower strands of the deprived—racial minorities, the LGBTQ community, immigrants, and so on. As deprived people, they were often given a leg up, even as the original working class sank and became increasingly susceptible to the appeal of MAGA politics. While this originally attracted the white working class, Trump succeeded in getting the support of the Black and Latino working class as well.
Many people think that Trumpism will be a self-limiting disease. That the impossibility of achieving the contradictory set of objectives it has set for itself will temper Trump’s impact.
For instance, take the issue of tariffs. Trump said last month, “tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” Most economists agreed that 10-20 percent tariffs on all imports and 60 percent on Chinese imports tariffs will raise prices in the US. There is a school of thought which believes that enacting tariffs will be a negotiating tactic, and nothing more. If this is so, there are two possible outcomes—other countries will lower their trade barriers, or, the more likely outcome, retaliate with their own tariffs. This will lead to an inflationary situation, something that Trump should know proved to be poison for the Democrats in this election.
The big target is Mexico. Trump has declared that he will raise tariffs 200 or 500 percent: “I don’t care. I’ll put a number where they can’t sell one car” (in the US). Currently, Mexico is the US’ biggest trade partner and has sold 2.55 million cars in the US in 2023. Tariffs would hit companies like Honda, Toyota, and Volkswagen, but it would also affect American companies like Ford, General Motors (GM), and Stellantis, whose supply chains extend to Mexico, while also using the country as a manufacturing base. For Mexico, it will be a double whammy, since the largest number of undocumented migrants to be deported are from the same country.
Tariffs would hit companies like Honda, Toyota, and Volkswagen, but it would also affect American companies like Ford, General Motors (GM), and Stellantis, whose supply chains extend to Mexico, while also using the country as a manufacturing base.
With regards to immigration, Trump wants to close the border and begin the process of deporting up to 11 million undocumented migrants. He has appointed hard-liners Stephen Miller and Thomas Homan to undertake this task, signalling his intention of fulfilling his campaign promises.
This is no ordinary task as this community is now woven into the US’ social and economic fabric. Vice President J. D. Vance has said that the target is to deport some 1 million illegal immigrants per year. Prising them out, setting up detention centres, overcoming legal challenges and encouraging them to return to their homelands could take years. It will also affect the economy since migrants are the backbone of agriculture and construction industries, and their presence has helped keep wages in check. A deportation process is likely to lead to inflation.
In many of these areas, the real question is what Trump will decide to focus on. Apparently, there are no less than 40 agendas he has promised to begin pursuing from his first day in office. Definitely, avenging himself against those he says have persecuted him in the Biden administration will be a priority. Among the targeted persons could be Jack Smith, former Attorney General Merrick Garland, as well as Trump’s friends-turned-enemies such as John Kelly, former Joint Chief of Staff, Chairman General Mark Milley, and Liz Cheney. Another strand of his policy will be a change in the rules to allow the firing of any federal official. There could be large-scale firings, accompanied by the appointment of MAGA supportors in their positions.
Foreign policy is an area that will experience a big change. The likely appointment of Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State signals a hardline approach. Rubio is known for his hawkish positions on Iran, China, and Venezuela, as well as his support for Israel’s campaign in Gaza.
Both the US and European Union (EU) short-changed the Ukrainians in the last two years through their niggling weapons supply policies.
Ukraine is likely to be a big loser, though the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) could also find itself in crosshairs. Both the US and European Union (EU) short-changed the Ukrainians in the last two years through their niggling weapons supply policies. Now Ukraine may be forced to cede territory to achieve peace, even while NATO’s status hangs in the air. JD Vance has suggested that the aim would be to have Russia and Ukraine ceasefire along the current frontlines, which means a loss of around 18 percent of Ukrainian territory that Russia has occupied since 2022. The Vance plan would also guarantee Ukrainian neutrality towards Russia.
As for Israel, Trump will be more supportive of Israeli military activities and would not, like the Biden Administration, use US military assistance as leverage to push Israeli policy in any specific direction. According to the Times of Israel, Trump has told Netanyahu that he wants an end to the Gaza war by the time he takes office on 20 January 2025.
But there are other issues where the US position will benefit Israel as well—particularly, destroying Hezbollah in Lebanon and dealing with Iran. Trump had walked away from the nuclear deal with Tehran and begun a campaign of “maximum pressure,” with harsh sanctions to push Iran to end its nuclear programme and its policy of arming regional proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. There is a lot of talk about Trump’s hardline views on China. But people often forget that in January 2020, he willingly signed a trade deal with China. There is no reason to believe that another such deal could not take place and also include the status of Taiwan also in it. America is in trouble. Its polarisation has deepened with this election and Trump’s attacks on the government have weakened the important infrastructure of American power.
As for the World Trade Organization (WTO), Trump has ensured that its appellate function was torpedoed in 2016, and now, with a tariff war around the corner, there is little chance that it will be able to do anything about that.
There is little doubt that the West-led multilateral world order that was put in place after World War II is headed for a change. It has been showing strain for some time now, but the MAGA victory could have sounded the death knell.
The UN Security Council (SC) is more or less frozen with the divisions between Russia, China, and the West. As for the World Trade Organization (WTO), Trump has ensured that its appellate function was torpedoed in 2016, and now, with a tariff war around the corner, there is little chance that it will be able to do anything about that.
The Biden administration had strongly backed NATO and America’s East Asian allies—Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Australia. In the case of NATO, Trump has questioned whether the US would honour the alliance’s mutual defence clause and has actually suggested that he would encourage Russia to “to do whatever the hell they want” to any NATO country that doesn’t pay enough.
All this is not necessarily bad. Countries of the Global South could benefit from the US’ retreat from its dominant role in world affairs. The new multilateralism fostered by organisations like BRICS could reshape the world to better serve Indian interests. But this is no ordinary task, this new multilateralism will have to go beyond its penchant for declarations and deliver results on the ground.
Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
- International Affairs
- USA and Canada
- BRICS
- China trade
- deportations
- Iran sanctions
- Israel
- MAGA
- NATO
- neoliberalism
- Trump victory
- Ukraine war
- US polarization
- US policy
- WTO
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